Bitcoin Poised for Record Highs as $15B Options Expiry Looms

June 26, 2025 – Bitcoin is showing strong momentum, potentially heading toward a new all-time high as a massive $15 billion options expiry approaches on June 27, 2025. This significant event, one of the largest monthly expiries on record, is fueling optimism in the crypto market, with Bitcoin trading close to its previous peak. Despite recent volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, the cryptocurrency is gaining traction, and analysts are eyeing a potential breakout over the weekend.

Massive Options Expiry on Deribit

According to data from Deribit, the world’s leading crypto options exchange, approximately 139,767 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire tomorrow at 08:00 UTC. These contracts, with a notional value of $15 billion, include 80,351 call options and 59,416 put options, reflecting a put/call ratio of 0.74, which suggests a mildly bullish market sentiment. The max pain price—the level at which option buyers face the greatest losses—is pegged at $102,000, notably below Bitcoin’s current trading price.

Bitcoin’s Price Surge and Market Outlook

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $108,090, marking a 3.17% increase over the past week and a 9.58% recovery from a weekly low of $98,560, which coincided with heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East involving Israel, Iran, and the US. With the market stabilizing and no immediate uncertainties on the horizon, Bitcoin is testing key resistance levels.

Currently, Bitcoin sits just 3.54% below its all-time high of $111,970, recorded on May 22, 2025. Analysts suggest that a decisive move above $110,000 could trigger a retest of this peak, potentially pushing Bitcoin to new highs by the weekend. Social media sentiment on platforms like X also reflects bullish optimism, with some traders targeting price levels as high as $115,000 or even $150,000 in the near term.

Factors Driving Bitcoin’s Momentum

Several factors are contributing to Bitcoin’s upward trajectory:

• Macroeconomic Support: Recent developments, such as the FHFA allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to count crypto assets and states like Arizona and Texas approving Bitcoin reserves, are driving institutional interest. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have reached $15.5 billion year-to-date, reinforcing demand.
• Reduced Volatility Expectations: Despite the large options expiry, Deribit’s DVOL index indicates declining volatility concerns, suggesting market stability as the expiry nears.

Risks to Watch

While the outlook is bullish, the crypto market remains inherently volatile. A sudden escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions could introduce downside risks, potentially impacting Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Additionally, the max pain price of $102,000 could incentivize market makers to push prices lower to maximize profits, though Bitcoin’s current trading level above this threshold reduces this likelihood.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

With Bitcoin trading at $108,090 and only a small push needed to challenge its all-time high, the June 27 options expiry could act as a catalyst for significant price action. If Bitcoin breaks above $110,000, analysts anticipate a rapid move toward $115,000, with some projecting even higher targets in the coming weeks. However, traders should remain cautious of sudden market shifts and monitor macroeconomic and geopolitical developments closely.

For the latest insights on Bitcoin and DeFi trading opportunities, platforms like CoinDesk and CryptoSlate offer valuable resources to stay informed.